Warning: multiple signals are flashing

Watch: NVDA 5+ sessions below its 50DMA with semis, credit, and indexes still intact. Confirmed: a failed reclaim at the 50DMA, or all of — 8+ sessions below, AI capex orange or red, and QQQ and SPY both within 1% of losing their 50DMAs (QQQ already below counts). If only QQQ is pressured while SPY holds by more than 1%, this stays a watch.

ActionTrim the riskiest 10–20% of AI/semi/capex exposure. This is de-risking because leadership is broken — not a full exit.

Watch: SMH closes below its 50DMA while NVDA is below and QQQ/SPY are no longer cleanly holding. Confirmed: the semi break persists 3–5 sessions without reclaim under the same conditions. Stop calling the move a normal dip.

ActionTrim 20–35% of high-beta semi/capex exposure. Trim order: leveraged exposure, Capex Torque / Cyclical Shots, DRAM, SMH, broad core last.

NVDA, SMH, QQQ, and SPY hold their 50DMAs, credit is calm, VIX is below 20, breadth is stable or improving, and AI capex is supported by revenue, margins, and free cash flow.

ActionContinue normal DCA. High-beta additions are allowed.